POPULATION PROJECTION IN RUSSIA: REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

January 15, 2020, 14:30 – 16:30, Building 5, Floor 2, Lecture Room 213

The first part of the report is devoted to a comparative analysis of the Russian regions according to the main demographic indicators, and describes the place of the Russian regions on the demographic map of the world taking into account the latest UN demographic data. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of traditional and latest indicators of mortality and aging.

The second part of the report will present a stochastic forecast for the Russian population for the period until 2050, first made in a regional context. The report will present the principles of stochastic forecasting and scenario formation.

The result of the forecast is prospective estimates of the distribution of the population in general and in different age groups in a regional context. The likelihood of reaching various levels of the population of Russia in the period until 2050 will be assessed.

Forecast results are important for the formation of managerial decisions based on the ranges of the possible population in different age groups. They also allow assessing the probability of achieving the target values for the main demographic indicators, for Russia as a whole and for individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The format of the event involves communication with the audience and the opportunity to ask questions after the report.

Speaker

  • Sergei Scherbov
    Sergei Scherbov

    Deputy Director, the World Population Program, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Head, International Laboratory for Demography and Human Capital, RANEPA

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The first part of the report is devoted to a comparative analysis of the Russian regions according to the main demographic indicators, and describes the place of the Russian regions on the demographic map of the world taking into account the latest UN demographic data. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of traditional and latest indicators of mortality and aging.

The second part of the report will present a stochastic forecast for the Russian population for the period until 2050, first made in a regional context. The report will present the principles of stochastic forecasting and scenario formation.

The result of the forecast is prospective estimates of the distribution of the population in general and in different age groups in a regional context. The likelihood of reaching various levels of the population of Russia in the period until 2050 will be assessed.

Forecast results are important for the formation of managerial decisions based on the ranges of the possible population in different age groups. They also allow assessing the probability of achieving the target values for the main demographic indicators, for Russia as a whole and for individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The format of the event involves communication with the audience and the opportunity to ask questions after the report.

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The first part of the report is devoted to a comparative analysis of the Russian regions according to the main demographic indicators, and describes the place of the Russian regions on the demographic map of the world taking into account the latest UN demographic data. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of traditional and latest indicators of mortality and aging.

The second part of the report will present a stochastic forecast for the Russian population for the period until 2050, first made in a regional context. The report will present the principles of stochastic forecasting and scenario formation.

The result of the forecast is prospective estimates of the distribution of the population in general and in different age groups in a regional context. The likelihood of reaching various levels of the population of Russia in the period until 2050 will be assessed.

Forecast results are important for the formation of managerial decisions based on the ranges of the possible population in different age groups. They also allow assessing the probability of achieving the target values for the main demographic indicators, for Russia as a whole and for individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The format of the event involves communication with the audience and the opportunity to ask questions after the report.

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[OGDESC] =>

The first part of the report is devoted to a comparative analysis of the Russian regions according to the main demographic indicators, and describes the place of the Russian regions on the demographic map of the world taking into account the latest UN demographic data. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of traditional and latest indicators of mortality and aging.

The second part of the report will present a stochastic forecast for the Russian population for the period until 2050, first made in a regional context. The report will present the principles of stochastic forecasting and scenario formation.

The result of the forecast is prospective estimates of the distribution of the population in general and in different age groups in a regional context. The likelihood of reaching various levels of the population of Russia in the period until 2050 will be assessed.

Forecast results are important for the formation of managerial decisions based on the ranges of the possible population in different age groups. They also allow assessing the probability of achieving the target values for the main demographic indicators, for Russia as a whole and for individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The format of the event involves communication with the audience and the opportunity to ask questions after the report.

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