Do more: Enhancement of demographic indices was discussed at the Gaidar Forum

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his message to the Federal Assembly from the demographic unit and made an appeal to increase the birth rate by 2024 to ensure natural population growth. The expert assessment of prospects of demographic growth was presented on January 15, at the Gaidar Forum at the Presidential Academy.

At the session “Population projection in Russia: Regional perspective”, Sergei Scherbov, Head, International Laboratory on Demography and Human Capital, RANEPA, presented a report on the difference in demographic indices of regions of the country and long-term trends of changes in quantity and structure of population of Russia.

He noted that the birth rate can be raised to the level identified by the President (1.7 child per woman) in several regions. But it is almost unfeasible to predict fluctuations in the birth rate with pinpoint accuracy, as the indicator depends on many factors.

“In Iran, 30–35 years ago, the birth rate was one of the highest in the world: seven children per woman. And after that it fell below the population replacement level. That is, uncertainty of indicators is quite high and exact forecast is impossible here. We can use only probabilistic forecasts with confidence,” Sergei Scherbov said.

When commenting on the report of his colleague, Valery Yelizarov, Academic Advisor, Population and Demographic Economics Laboratory, Faculty of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, noted that the measures of support for families as suggested by the President may contribute to establishment of positive demographical dynamics. In his Message to the Federal Assembly, Vladimir Putin ordered to create 255 thousand new jobs by 2021, to extend the effective period of the maternity capital program at least until December 31, 2026 and to increase the amount of payment for birth of the second child to RUB 616.6 thousand.

An integrated plan of improvement of the demographic situation is enshrined in the passport of Demography National Project launched in 2019. In terms of several indicators, it is already implemented ahead of the schedule. In the summer, Veronika Skvortsova, Minister of Healthcare, spoke about the statistically significant growth of life expectancy and decrease of infant mortality to the level that was expected to be achieved by 2023.

The 11th Gaidar Forum “Russia and the World: Challenges of the New Decade” is being held at the Presidential Academy on January 15 and 16, 2020. The forum is focused on the goals of national and global development and the search for practical answers to the most pressing challenges of our time. The forum is attended by ministers of the Government of the Russian Federation, members of the Federal Assembly, governors of the Russian regions, prominent international experts, and representatives of foreign states.

The organizers of the 11th Gaidar Forum are the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, and the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia.

The title partners of the Gaidar Forum are PJSC Gazprom and JSC Gazprombank. The strategic partners are Coca-Cola, Mastercard, Russian Railways, Pharmstandard group of companies, Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi, Novartis group of companies, MSD, AKIG group of companies, EF Education First. Partners are Prosveshchenie group of companies, EY, Huawei, RVC JSC, Russian Agricultural Bank JSC.

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