Challenges of the Monetary Policy of the Bank of Russia under Disinflation

On January 18, Gaidar Forum experts discussed challenges of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia under disinflation.

In 2017, the Bank of Russia continued to pursue a moderately stringent monetary policy aimed at achieving a target inflation rate of 4%. In the second half of the year, there has been a significant deviation of actual inflation from the target. This defined the relevance of discussion of the causes and consequences of differences between the target and actual inflation, an analysis of consequences for economic dynamics and inflation expectations of economic agents.

Experts discussed the optimal target level of inflation, and the sectoral and regional structure of inflation in the Russian Federation.

“In my opinion, there was a slowdown in inflation in the monetary policy, which was a very unexpected news,” said Pavel Trunin, Head of the Macroeconomics and Finance at Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.

“Inflation falling below 4% was caused by temporary factors. As they fade, inflation will return to the target level,” noted Igor Dmitriev, Director of the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Department.

The participants also looked at the external conditions for the regulator’s monetary policy, the long-term strategy of its monetary policy. The Bank of Russia is implementing its monetary policy in an inflation targeting mode; its main goal is to protect and ensure the stability of the ruble by maintaining price stability, that is, a steadily low inflation.

The organizers include the Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Gaidar Institute) and the Association of Innovative Regions of Russia (AIRR).

The program outline is available at the forum website.

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